Why Herd Immunity does not work for Covid-19: The people that get sick can be asymptomatic for up to two weeks

Voidisyinyang Voidisyinyang 1 second ago

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/14/california-coronavirus-herd-immunity-early-spread-stanford-expert-interview 

Dr Yvonne Maldonado explains why claims about early spread have been overblown and misleading – and what the data actually shows. Out of the 3,330 samples analyzed, 50 came back positive, indicating a crude prevalence rate of 1.5%. The researchers adjusted the initial results both by demographics — to account for the zip code, sex and race of study participants — and by test accuracy. The antibody test misses between 10 and 30% of those who have COVID-19 antibodies, according to Bendavid. “This test is not good enough for personal and clinical decision making,” Bendavid said. “But for estimating the prevalence, the inaccuracy is something we can account for.”

  https://www.stanforddaily.com/2020/04/17/santa-clara-county-covid-19-cases-could-be-50-to-85-times-higher-than-reported-stanford-study-finds/ 

 So they are assuming an earlier infection rate based on symptoms. It's not yet peer-reviewed published. Meanwhile NYC has a 1 in 7 "already infected" rate!! Therefore much higher mortality rate.

"One intriguing case study for epidemiologists looking for the true fatality rate is the Diamond Princess cruise ship, which became a kind of natural experiment when nearly all of its 3,711 passengers and crew members were tested for the coronavirus after an outbreak on board. The ship’s “case fatality rate,” which included only those who showed symptoms, was 2.6 percent, according to a study by researchers at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, while the “infection fatality rate,” which included those who tested positive yet remained asymptomatic, was 1.3 percent."

and so 

"Which just restates CDC's pandemic flu advice a different way. Assuming ~1/1000 mortality, this suggests that unrestricted spread which might infect 250-300 million people in the US would cause a peak of illnesses with 25 million hospitalizations and 250,000-300,000 deaths in the US over 1-3 months, well above what the health system can manage. This would cause a situation worse than Italy with many people dying from otherwise treatable conditions, a higher death rate, and thus 500,000-3 million deaths in the US, many of them health care workers who get higher exposure at work. US states responded late, but better late than not at all. people have herd immunity built against common influenza. It will take time for that immunity to propogate for a new virus, and so it naturally will do more damage right now just on rate of spread. people can and do have full-to-partial immunity from flu strains, and second, because cv19 is much more contagious (r0 of 2.5-6.0), herd immunity isn't reached until a much higher portion of the public is infected."

 Why Coronavirus is so Contagious - Paul Beckwith vid on the AE2 receptor secret of Covid-19