Wednesday, February 11, 2026

Earth is over 1.5 C above pre-industrial temps already but global warming IPCC math averages over 30 years so ignores the truth

 Zeke Hausfather, October 2023, said: "This month was, in my professional opinion as a climate scientist – absolutely gobsmackingly bananas. JRA-55 beat the prior monthly record by over 0.5C, and was around 1.8C warmer than preindustrial levels."

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/02/horrific-temperature-anomalies-forecast-over-arctic-ocean.html 

 As illustrated by the Eliot Jacobson image below, which uses a 3-year running mean, the temperature has meanwhile crossed the 1.5°C threshold and reached 1.53°C even when using an 1850-1900 base. 

  a relatively small rise in average temperature can result in a lot more hot and extremely hot weather.

As an example, land-only temperatures are rising faster than ocean temperatures. Since most people live on land, it's crucial to report the full temperature peaks on land, rather than the global average.

Yet another way used to downplay the dangers is by averaging the temperature rise out over long periods of time.

 When using an even earlier baseline, i.e. 1750 or preindustrial, it could be 1.53°C warmer, as discussed in an earlier post.

 the IPCC appears to have arrived at its temperature rise estimate by using an extrapolation or near term predictions of future warming so that the level of anthropogenic warming is reported for a 30 year period centered on today.

 

 

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