Looks like it's already a global war considering Russia has to rely on North Korean forces and Iranian, Chinese weapons.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TpQ_WvqeXfI
Iranian-made Shaheen missiles. This attack highlights the deepening
military collaboration between Russia and Iran. As the prolonged war
grinds on, Russia has increasingly leaned on allies like Iran, China,
and North Korea for supply of arms—nations united in their challenge to
the U.S.-led global order.
“Russia cannot continue waging the current war beyond late 2025, when it will begin running out of key weapons systems.”
Fortune, November 24th, 2024.
Alexander
Mertens, a professor of finance at the National University of
Kyiv-Mohyla Academy, explained how Russia can’t produce enough to
replace what it’s losing on the battlefield.
For example, the military is losing about 320 tank and artillery cannon
barrels a month, while Russian factories can produce only 20 each month,
forcing the Kremlin to dig into aging Soviet stockpiles. But that’s not
enough, and Russia will run out of barrels sometime in 2025, In
addition, Russia is losing about 155 infantry fighting vehicles a month,
but its defense industry can make only 17 a month. The
supply-and-demand economics of artillery shells and troops are also
unsustainable.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nwgh8yHh2Mw
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EKEBgbHS-AI
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/11/23/7485972/
"Russia has been using ballistic missiles throughout this war, but
this is alleged to have been an intercontinental ballistic missile –
which normally has a different use, which, if it is the case, is on the
one hand an escalation and a signal, but on the other hand also an act
of desperation that Putin is unable to win in this war," he said.
Sikorski added that he is currently observing the Russian economy
experiencing "real stress". He also noted reports of desertions among
Russian soldiers, emphasising that "inviting mercenaries from North
Korea is not exactly a sign of strength".
Russia will have moved some of its critical capabilities beyond their
reach – and done so probably well before Biden’s decision. ...
The use of just six ballistic missiles, albeit in combination with a
large number of drones, might be an indication that Ukraine, for now at
least, has relatively limited stock of these missiles and cannot commit
them in large numbers to individual strikes....
Given that the Ukrainian attack, according to Russian reports, caused no
damage, this is highly unlikely....
air defence systems intercepted five and damaged one.
following the Biden administration's announcement, the French daily Le
Figaro reported that the U.K. and France said they, too, would allow
Ukraine to use their Storm Shadow and SCALP missiles to strike inside
Russia. That will put pressure on Germany, which has so far refused to
deliver its Taurus missiles to Ukraine.
Chinese and Indian warnings to Russian President Vladimir Putin not to
cross the nuclear red line....Only railroads can fill the demand, and
railroads are vulnerable to
long-range strikes. Physical infrastructure—track, bridges, tunnels,
switching stations, engine yards, diesel fuel depots—can be struck and
restruck to isolate the occupying Russian army.
Furthermore, Biden’s decision releases any constraints on Britain or
France supplying SCALP/Storm Shadow air-launched missiles, which could
be effective when used alongside the ground-launched ATACMs. However,
all the relevant weapon systems have a range of only a few hundred
kilometres – for example, 300km for ATACMs – meaning they are incapable
of striking too deep into Russian territory.
Pentagon spokesperson Sabrina Singh said Russian officials warned the
U.S. of the launch through nuclear risk reduction channels. That helped
ensure that it wasn't misidentified as an intercontinental ballistic
missile and therefore a possible nuclear threat.
While Russia
already has sufficient weapons in its arsenal to strike NATO partners,
Poland is particularly unnerved by these new developments. Polish Prime
Minister Donald Tusk said there is a "serious and real" threat of global
war. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called it a "clear and
severe escalation" by Russia. Zelenskyy accused Putin of using Ukraine
as a "testing ground."
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk stressed that "the events of the last
few dozen hours" point to a "real threat of global conflict".
the missile defense base in Poland has long been included among the
priority targets for potential neutralization. If necessary, this can be
achieved using a wide range of advanced weaponry," Zakharova
claimed, according to an article by Russian state-owned news agency TASS.
I’ve said before, if Russia attacks Poland, we’ll strike targets in
St. Petersburg. I’ll do everything to avoid it, but if necessary, we’ll
act.
Poland is buying 800 missiles and preparing its army because
we understand Russia’s language. Ukraine’s Western partners must also
understand that withholding permissions or weapons won’t help.
https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/11/26/us-says-it-takes-russian-threats-to-strike-new-american-base-in-poland-seriously/
Polish Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Paweł Wroński stressed the
Polish base in Redzikowo is purely defensive, set up to counter
ballistic missile threats, according to RMF24.
Wronski added that if Russia continues its threats,
the US and NATO may need to bolster air defenses along the Alliance’s
eastern flank.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cjr4pr0gyyzo
more than a dozen different North Korean oil tankers arriving at an oil
terminal in Russia’s Far East a total of 43 times over the past eight
months.
Pyongyang was sending Moscow weapons.
The shipments have continued as thousands of North Korean troops are reported to have been sent to Russia to fight, with the last one recorded on 5 November.
“While
Kim Jong Un is providing Vladimir Putin with a lifeline to continue his
war, Russia is quietly providing North Korea with a lifeline of its
own,” says Joe Byrne from the Open Source Centre.
Its biggest worry is that Moscow will provide Pyongyang with technology to improve its spy satellites and ballistic missiles.
Last month, Seoul’s defence minister, Kim Yong-hyun, stated there was a “high chance” North Korea was asking for such help.
“If you’re sending your people to die in a foreign war, a million barrels of oil is just not sufficient reward,” Dr Go says.
https://apnews.com/article/north-korea-russia-ukraine-artillery-f16f8a95fc6b4314c52d4a9271c3632d
the National Intelligence Service said that North Korea exported 170mm
self-propelled guns and 240mm multiple rocket launch systems to Russia,
according to lawmaker Lee Seong Kweun, who attended the meeting.
North Korea likely dispatched personnel to teach the Russians how to use them and handle their maintenance.
Last
week, Russian Telegram channels and other social media posts published
photos apparently showing North Korean’s “Koksan” 170mm self-propelled
guns being moved by rail inside Russia. The Financial Times, citing
Ukrainian intelligence assessments, reported Sunday that North Korea in
recent weeks sent some 50 domestically produced 170mm self-propelled
howitzers and 20 240mm multiple launch rocket systems to Russia.