Thursday, January 18, 2024

Why do scientists think the ESAS methane bomb is a matter of "belief"? NEW Shakhova et. al. study results

  Jim Hunt (science journalist?) replied to me with this:

As previously discussed, I’ll believe it when I see it. I’ve met Peter Cox, who contributed to this chapter in the IPCC’s AR6 WG1 report:

https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Chapter05.pdf

It is very unlikely that gas clathrates in terrestrial and subsea permafrost will lead to a detectable departure from the emissions trajectory during this century.

https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3263/13/8/228 

First Calibrated Methane Bubble Wintertime Observations in the Siberian Arctic Seas: Selected Results from the Fast Ice
by Denis Chernykh
1,2,3,* [ORCID] , Natalia Shakhova
1,2,3, Vladimir Yusupov
1,2,4 [ORCID] , Elena Gershelis
2,5,6 [ORCID] , Boris Morgunov
3 and Igor Semiletov
1,2,3,5,*
1
V.I. Ilyichev Pacific Oceanological Institute, Far Eastern Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 690041 Vladivostok, Russia
2
Laboratory of the Arctic Land Shelf Interaction, Tomsk State University, 634050 Tomsk, Russia
3
Institute of Ecology, Higher School of Economics (HSE), 101000 Moscow, Russia
4
Federal Scientific Research Center “Crystallography and Photonics” RAS, Institute of Photon Technologies, 108840 Moscow, Russia
5
School of Earth Sciences and Engineering, Tomsk Polytechnic University, 634050 Tomsk, Russia
6
International Research Center for Ecology and Climate Change, Sirius University of Science and Technology, 354340 Sochi, Russia

"In winter, the flux of CH4 transported by rising bubbles to the bottom water in the shallow part of the ESAS was estimated at ~19 g·m−2 per day, while the flux reaching the water/sea ice interface was calculated as ~15 g·m−2 per day taking into account the diffusion of CH4 in the surrounding water and the enrichment of rising bubbles with nitrogen and oxygen. We suggest that this bubble-transported CH4 flux reaching the water /sea ice interface can be emitted into the atmosphere through numerous ice trenches, leads, and polynyas. This CH4 ebullition value detected at the water/sea ice interface is in the mid high range of CH4 ebullition value estimated for the entire ESAS, and two orders higher than the upper range of CH4 ebullition from the northern thermocarst lakes, which are considered as a significant source to the atmospheric methane budget."

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