Thursday, June 15, 2023

Official Science models now say Arctic will likely be Ice-Free by 2030, a Decade earlier than previous models

  https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-01857-6

Arctic waters could lose all of their summer-end sea ice as early as 2030.
The stronger SIA [Sea Ice Area] declines have advanced first ice-free years to around the 2030s–50s in all SSP scenarios. Importantly, the earlier occurrence of an ice-free Arctic in September becomes evident even in the SSP1-2.6 low emission scenario in all observations (circle marks in Fig. 4e). ...Results indicate that the first sea ice-free September will occur as early as the 2030s–2050s irrespective of emission scenarios. The Arctic could go ice-free in less than a decade: Even stringent emission limits will not preserve the end-of-summer ice on Arctic seas.
previous computer modeling studies have "significantly" underestimated the trend in sea ice decline in the region.

 At what point can we officially state that all the official models will ALWAYS "significantly underestimate" the rate of abrupt global warming and the ecological crisis?


 

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