Wednesday, August 12, 2020

Veery bird migration date predicts Hurricane season strength: Dr. Chris Heckscher

 So I've blogged on the Veery before - I have Veery at the EcoEcho mini-forest - and the Veery is a very beautiful song, using natural number harmonics. https://blog.aba.org/2019/09/american-birding-podcast-veery-meteorology-with-christopher-heckscher.html

Veery in British Columbia migrate to the EAST COAST and then down to Brazil Amazon also. So most likely it's the same from Minnesota as well. Amazing!!

Heckscher, C. M. 2018. A Nearctic-Neotropical Migratory Songbird’s Nesting Phenology and Clutch Size are Predictors of Accumulated Cyclone Energy. Scientific Reports 8: 9sp;https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-28302-3

So the new Netflix "science" Connections series... https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-28302-3

features the above "behavorial ecologist" - studying Veery in Delaware...

https://cast.desu.edu/about/faculty-profiles/christopher-m-heckscher-ms-phd  

Veery (Catharus fuscescens)

So first he discovered the Veery flies down to the Brazil Amazon....

but then he realized they dramatically leave at different times and he could not figure out WHY.

Then he hypothesized the Veery PREDICTS the Hurricane season and if the Veery leaves early that means the hurricane season will be bad...

The breeding season phenology of Nearctic-Neotropical migratory songbirds is constrained by subsequent seasons resulting in single-brooded behavior (one successful clutch per year) in some species. Early cessation of the nesting season prior to an active hurricane season will allow for behavioral plasticity during a physiologically challenging migration. Hurricane activity shows a high degree of inter-annual variability. I show that a single-brooded Nearctic-breeding species’ (Catharus fuscescens) nesting phenology and clutch size are signifcant predictors of Accumulated Cyclone Energy. The most skilled predictive model includes both mean clutch initiation date and mean clutch size (R2=0.84). Spearman rank correlation coefcients for both predictors with subsequent major hurricanes (1998–2016) are −0.55 and 0.52, respectively. Therefore, May and June clutch initiation and clutch size showed stronger correlations with subsequent hurricanes than early season (prior to August) meteorological predictions widely publicized by CSU, NOAA, and TSR (≤0.45, 2003–2014). Rainfall anomalies in the southern Amazon basin associated with ENSO cycles are a possible proximate cue afecting phenology and clutch size. This discovery potentially has far-reaching ornithological, meteorological, and social implications and shows that tropical storms signifcantly constrain breeding season behavior providing renewed evidence that hurricane activity is a primary factor regulating Nearctic-Neotropical migratory songbird populations.

'Veery' smart birds | Del State professor's research into songbirds could help meteorologists better predict hurricane season

 https://www.wdel.com/news/veery-smart-birds-del-state-professors-research-into-songbirds-could-help-meteorologists-better-predict-hurricane/article_3f4ef0da-00e2-11ea-b9c5-e7071435d122.html

Heckscher has determined there's a direct correlation between the length of the breeding season and the severity of the Atlantic Hurricane season in years when the birds spent more time nesting.

"I don't know what they're sensing, but whatever it is, they know by the middle of May because that's the height, the peak of their breeding season," he said. "I don't know if it's something that they're keying in on in the winter in South America before they come up to North America, or whether it's something they sort of sense as they're migrating north, but clearly, something is affecting their physiology, and that's giving them the internal biological signal to stop nesting at a certain point."

He said, over time, birds that don't adjust their breeding cycle, which lasts between 30 and 40 days, likely have higher mortality rates during their fall migration as they head south during strong tropical storms.

"That's kind of weeded out the birds that weren't so good about sensing what's coming.

 

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