You say you are inspired by Extinction Rebellion but as GEE points out - they continue to ignore the Aerosol Masking Effect. There is a new interview with GEE - you should watch it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4rbulzeUmnY The truth is not a popularity contest.
You want to read "trendy" utopia articles that don't deal with the empirical facts of the peer-reviewed science based on ecology. You're not putting Nature First despite your channel claim. I suppose this is like Paul Beckwith - you have a child so you have to maintain deNile about the facts.
OK thanks for the reply. I have no problem with "action" - as you know I already got arrested 8 times for activism - and I spent 25 years doing policy activism. So when Roger was being an organic farmer - I was mainly being an activist. I did do an organic farm internship full time summer of 1997 and I worked an organic fruit warehouse job for 2 years - but that was more recently, 2013-15. I've also done some of my own "organic farming" and currently an a mushroom farmer.
So OK let's just deal with the LOGIC of our situation based on the EVIDENCE.
"We need to rethink everything we know about global warming"
That is the headline of https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/01/190122104611.htm from one of the links of GEE's article.
"New research shows that the degree to which aerosols cool the earth has been grossly underestimated, "and
"And, they discovered that aerosols' cooling effect is nearly twice higher than previously thought."
and this:
"The fact that our planet is getting warmer even though aerosols are cooling it down at higher rates than previously thought brings us to a Catch-22 situation: Global efforts to improve air quality by developing cleaner fuels and burning less coal could end up harming our planet by reducing the number of aerosols in the atmosphere, and by doing so, diminishing aerosols' cooling ability to offset global warming."So that is what GEE is calling the McFearSun Mustache Paradox. haha. But it's right there in the science Daily article.
Here is a follow up article:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cRnWcBK9kTQ GEE McFearSun on the Aerosol Masking Effect - from the collapse of a third of the economy...
I hear you. Basically I think you mean "damage management" - and as you say the election is fascinating. People are just trying to survive with 8 of those people having as much wealth as half the population of the planet. Bezos' 10 billion can fund a lot of DeCrapio private jet documentaries about saving the planet. haha. It's definitely a real circus.
Personally I think Mother Nature doing a flash flood of Britain and Mother Nature making it too hot - this is more of a wake up call. Look at Australia - MASS rallies now against global warming and just every day workers saying the problem is drought and heat from global warming. So I think Mother Nature is definitely taking center stage. Coronavirus and African famine - etc. This summer should get real interesting.
I just got a used military duffle shoulder strap bug-out bag - so I can just head for the national forest to camp or state forest. That way I can live full time camping if I need to. It's 36 inches tall - lots of space for gear to carry on the back. Paul Beckwith thinks the Arctic will be Ice Out by 2026 - and that should be triggering the Methane Bomb. So I don't think GEE's timeline is not off. Even the top bank in the world - just released that report of a GREEN SWAN event - the probability of some extreme global warming catastrophe tanking the economy.
What is not mentioned is that - the "international Bank of Settlements" - when that Green Swan event hits - then the Aerosol Masking really kicks in. Already methane is increasing from ESAS and permafrost. So GEE's predictions are on target in my view. The FED can not increase the interest rates because debt is too high from the massive bubble - the whole system is being propped up through fraud. Civilization is a fraud. haha. I agree it's fascinating. I am learning as much as possible about "civilization" through youtube - so I don't have to take part but I can feast on the fascinating. thanks
RedLlama has a freak out response about my comments above - as his livestream vid
Rosenfeld and his colleague Yannian Zhu from the Meteorological Institute of Shaanxi Province in China developed a new method that uses satellite images to separately calculate the effect of vertical winds and aerosol cloud droplet numbers. They applied this methodology to low-lying cloud cover above the world's oceans between the Equator and 40S. With this new method, Rosenfeld and his colleagues were able to more accurately calculate aerosols' cooling effects on the Earth's energy budget. And, they discovered that aerosols' cooling effect is nearly twice higher than previously thought. https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/01/190122104611.htm here you go and followed up with this.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-13372-2 here you go! Analysis of polarimetric satellite measurements suggests stronger cooling due to aerosol-cloud interactions
I'm listening again for GEE's 5 degree quote. Although it appears to be based on his analysis here: "The cooling effect is “nearly twice what scientists previously thought.” That this February 2019 paper cites the conclusion by Levy et al. (2013) https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/jgrd.50192 indicating as little as 35% reduction in industrial activity drives a 1 C global-average rise in temperature suggests that as little as a 20% reduction in industrial activity is sufficient to warm the planet 1 C within a few days or weeks." https://guymcpherson.com/2019/08/a-concise-overview/ So basic math means 20% as 1C means 100% is 5C.
I'm not hearing the "5 degrees" yet. The contrails debate we had was suddenly vanished - so it was your thread, so you must have self-censored it. The transcript on the BBC global dimming doc is here http://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/tvradio/programmes/horizon/dimming_trans.shtml So the 1 degree temperature change is discussed as part of Global Dimming - and so the issue being conflated is sulfur pollution from airplanes versus just contrails. So here is a BBC conversation with the producer of the Global Dimming documentary:
"But what seems clear is that contrails contribute to a reduction in the amount of daytime solar radiation reaching the surface, and that this has significant effects on temperature." http://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/tvradio/programmes/horizon/dimming_qa.shtml
"Using the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's (GFDL's) fully coupled chemistry‐climate (ocean/atmosphere/land/sea ice) model (CM3) with an explicit physical representation of aerosol indirect effects (cloud‐water droplet activation), we find that the dramatic emission reductions (35%–80%) in anthropogenic aerosols and their precursors projected by Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 result in ~1 °C of additional warming and ~0.1 mm day−1 of additional precipitation, both globally averaged, by the end of the 21st century." https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/jgrd.50192
So when GEE says a 35% reduction as 1 degree Celsius based on the indirect cloud water droplet aerosol effect - that is now known to be double - that is what he is referring to.
"On the other hand, the aerosols have a cooling (“masking”) effect of about −0.9 °C.... Total forcing by ABCs as IPCC forcings (Wm−2): direct effect, ±0.4; cloud albedo effect, −1.1, +0.4. " https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2567151/ "Our best estimate of RFaci = −1.14 W m−2 is even more negative than the IPCC-AR5 estimate of −0.90 W m−2 for the total aerosol radiative forcing (ERFaci+ari). These findings put into question that by expert judgement the satellite studies were given more weight than model estimates in IPCC-AR5, resulting in a weaker negative forcing than IPCC-AR4, in particular because our estimate is more in line with the models and with IPCC-AR4. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-13372-2 So the model you are using is not accurate.
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